Bitcoin below $60K is still a flow-driven trade
Bitcoin remains vulnerable as long as outflows and broader risk unwinding dominate the tape. It has fallen 50% since its all-time high and was on course to finish more than 15% lower for the week. More importantly, price is pressing the $60K area last broken in September 2024, which makes this an active support test rather than a theoretical one.
ETF outflows keep the pressure on
The clearest signal is still in ETF flows. Spot bitcoin ETFs have seen $5.4B in net outflows over the last four weeks, including a $1.72B weekly net outflow. BlackRock's IBIT led the withdrawals, reinforcing the bearish view that liquidity is leaving and rallies may still be relief moves rather than a confirmed turn.
Oversold RSI helps the bounce case, but not the trend case
Bulls can point to the fact that Bitcoin remains heavily oversold. That matters for near-term volatility, but it does not cancel weak flows. As things stand, downside still has the edge unless price reclaims support quickly and ETF flows stabilize.
Macro unwind and crypto flows moved together
The recent sell-off was not confined to crypto. Broadcom's revenue miss helped drag down semiconductor stocks, and that pressure spread across risk assets. Bitcoin was pulled into the same unwind because traders were still treating it as a high-beta liquidity vehicle rather than a standalone safe haven. Broadcom's revenue miss helped turn a sector problem into broader risk-off pressure, and A global selloff in technology stocks shows how localized weakness can spread across markets.
Why the bounces kept failing
When tech leads the liquidation, crypto can lose funding, collateral quality, and bid depth all at once. That helps explain why the downside move felt so clean. Chris Weston described it as big crowded positions being unwound very, very quickly. In practice, that means deleveraging can keep going even without fresh bad news every session.
The same pattern showed up in positioning. Reuters noted that risky bets across asset classes were being washed out together, which helps explain why rebounds were getting sold.
Strategy's small BTC sale added to the tone
Even smaller flow signals turned negative. Strategy sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million to help fund dividends on STRC. The amount was small, but it still mattered symbolically because Strategy has long been associated with a buy-and-hold bitcoin stance.
Bitcoin's next move depends on $60K holding
The setup is mechanical as much as it is psychological. With RSI seen at a historic low of 16 during the washout, a bounce is always possible. But a bounce is not the same as trend repair.
Support, resistance, and the bear-case range
Near term, the market is still in liquidation mode. Bitcoin fell to a near two-year low of about $60,000, and analysts warn that if that psychological floor fails, a deeper decline could follow, with some outlining $37,000-$40,000 as a worse-case zone. The first support is therefore roughly $60K.
On the upside, traders are watching the $69,000 area as an early test, after price had slipped near the $70,110 level. Until Bitcoin can reclaim that range, rallies still look more like relief moves than a clean trend turn.