BlackBerry and Nokia are being rerated as legacy names with new infrastructure roles
BlackBerry has gained 55.6% over the last year. Nokia has also posted a sharp move, with recent coverage tied to a continued post-earnings re-rating after Nokia's April 23, 2026 Q1 report. Together, these stocks suggest investors are looking past the old handset-and-telecom story and focusing on narrower AI-infrastructure roles: BlackBerry through QNX and Nokia through optical networks.
Fresh fundamentals are supporting the narrative
Both companies have recently added evidence to the theme. BlackBerry reported first-quarter revenue above estimates, and management said the software turnaround is complete. In the same reporting cycle, Reuters said QNX revenue rose 20% and the royalty backlog reached about $950 million.
Nokia's April 2026 earnings also strengthened the case. After its Q1 report, Nokia lifted growth expectations for Network Infrastructure, while separate coverage highlighted a 54% jump in comparable operating profit and a 49% increase in sales from AI and cloud customers.
That is the core tension. If these companies are genuinely becoming embedded layers in AI and connectivity buildouts, the rerating could have room to run. If not, the market may be moving faster than the fundamentals.
Nokia's rerating is tied to AI networking demand
The key question for Nokia is whether demand is showing up in the right parts of the business. The most direct link is AI-related networking demand: optical interconnects, IP routing, and data-center connectivity rather than a broad consumer-phone rebound. That is why analysts have focused on accelerating AI-driven demand in the Network Infrastructure business.
The growth upgrade points to the right segment
Nokia lifted its 2026 Network Infrastructure net sales growth outlook to 12%–14%, and said Optical + IP Networks combined are expected to grow 18%–20% in 2026. That faster growth in optical and IP fits the idea that AI data-center buildouts are pulling that layer of the stack harder than the broader mobile network business.
What has to keep working
For the thesis to hold, investors need to see the same pattern repeat:
- stronger orders and mix in Optical and IP Networks
- continued proof that AI-related demand is contributing to profitability
- no sign that the segment lead is fading before broader operations catch up
If that happens, Nokia's rerating can stay tied to fundamentals rather than just to a compelling AI narrative.
BlackBerry's comeback depends on QNX becoming a real software platform
For BlackBerry, the question is simpler: is QNX becoming a durable embedded-software infrastructure layer, or is the market simply rewarding the brand again?
Revenue guidance is less important than the mix inside it
BlackBerry's latest forecast calls for revenue of $132 million-$140 million versus $129.9 million in estimates. The modest beat matters less than what drove the outlook. QNX revenue rose 20% to $78.7 million, and the royalty backlog increased to approximately $950 million.
That is the mechanism investors need to watch. QNX is embedded in safety-critical systems, especially in automobiles, and a large royalty backlog suggests future revenue tied to designs already in the pipeline. Management has also pointed to demand beyond cars, highlighting automotive systems, robotics, and physical AI applications.
What would validate or break the thesis
What would support the bull case - continued QNX revenue growth - further expansion of the royalty backlog - clearer evidence that automotive and broader embedded demand are offsetting weakness elsewhere
What would challenge the story - slowing QNX momentum - a backlog that stops growing or fails to convert into revenue - a broader BlackBerry profile that remains too dependent on legacy expectations rather than new software recurring demand
For now, the trade is less about nostalgia and more about whether these old brands can stay useful inside new infrastructure stacks.