The market rallied on hopes the Strait of Hormuz is reopening to commercial shipping. The tape grabbed everything from BlackBerry to a quantum computing startup and wrapped it all in a geopolitical risk-on bid.
None of these four stocks has anything to do with the Strait of Hormuz. That's the false narrative. The real story is what happens when broad market enthusiasm buys small-cap growth names that haven't earned their move - and whether any of them deserve to keep it.
Navitas Semiconductor ($NVTS): The 1,000% rally has a 39% revenue problem
Navitas makes gallium nitride (GaN) power chips - semiconductor components that handle power conversion more efficiently than traditional silicon, used in phone chargers, automotive electronics, and increasingly in AI data center power infrastructure. The stock is up roughly 1,000% over the past year and 88% year-to-date in 2026 alone, driven by the thesis that AI data centers need GaN to power GPU clusters more efficiently.
The revenue says otherwise. Q1 2026 came in at $8.6 million - up 18% sequentially, which is encouraging, but down 39% year-over-year. That's not an AI data center inflection. That's a company still burning through the same tiny revenue base, hoping the next quarter is the one where enterprise adoption kicks in.
The market is pricing in a future where Navitas is a key supplier to hyperscalers. The current quarterly run rate of $8.6 million - annualized to roughly $34 million - doesn't even suggest the company has broken into that market yet. Sequential improvement is the right direction. A thousand percent price move on $8.6 million in quarterly revenue is not.
BlackBerry ($BB): The story broke in. The price followed.
BlackBerry is up 108% year-to-date, climbing to roughly $8 per share. The thesis shifted from "mobile phone company" to "cybersecurity and automotive software platform" - driven by QNX, an embedded operating system used in cars, and its cybersecurity licensing business.
The fundamentals are real. Q4 FY26 posted EPS of $0.06, beating the $0.04 estimate by 50%. Revenue returned to growth with a 10% year-over-year increase - the eighth consecutive quarter of adjusted profitability. Full-year FY26 guidance sits at $508–$538 million.
But the equity value is now roughly $3.2 billion. On $520 million of revenue, that's about 6 times forward sales for a company whose growth has been lumpy and whose third-quarter revenue fell 1.25% year-over-year. Morningstar pegs fair value at $1.00 - well below current levels.
The catalyst already happened. Investors discovered the software story, and the stock repriced. The question now isn't whether BlackBerry has real products - it does - but whether $0.02 in forecast annual EPS can justify a stock that doubled before the year was halfway through.
Infleqtion ($INFQ): Ninety times revenue for a quantum dream
Infleqtion went public via SPAC in February 2026 at a $2.35 billion implied valuation. It now trades near $16.35 with a $3.57 billion market cap. The company builds neutral-atom quantum computing hardware - a technology years away from commercial profitability.
Q1 2026 revenue: $9.5 million, up 14% year-over-year. Full-year 2026 guidance: $40 million. The stock surged 11% in a single day this week and is up over 30% in seven days.
At 90 times forward sales, the market isn't valuing a business. It's valuing a hypothesis that neutral-atom quantum computing will dominate the field - years of execution away. The $3.13 billion enterprise value on $40 million of guided revenue is the definition of narrative pricing. There is no earnings anchor, no margin trajectory, no growth multiple to compare against. Just the hope that the technology proves out before the stock implodes.
AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS): The only one with a real business to judge
AST SpaceMobile builds satellite infrastructure that connects directly to standard smartphones, eliminating the need for satellite phones. Q1 2026 revenue was $14.7 million, missing consensus by roughly 60%. The stock fell on the miss.
But the full picture is different. The company raised $1 billion in convertible notes in February, bringing total cash to $3.5 billion - enough fuel for years of deployment. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $150–$200 million. The company is targeting 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit, with plans for 45–60 total by year-end, and is rolling out a beta service to select AT&T customers in the first half of 2026.
The revenue miss is concerning, but it's a deployment timing problem, not a demand problem. Satellite builds are lumpy. The cash position removes the capital overhang that kills growth companies. The AT&T beta is a real catalyst - if the service works for mainstream customers, the TAM (total addressable market) is the billions of people on Earth who currently have no cellular coverage.
This is the one stock where the thesis has real milestones to watch: satellite deployment cadence, AT&T beta results, and whether Q2 revenue starts climbing toward the upper end of guidance. The stock needs to find a bottom after the earnings miss, but the forward setup - $3.5 billion in cash, $150–200 million in guided revenue, and a differentiated product - is the only one in this group where execution can actually close the gap.
The bottom line
Geopolitical rallies are the most honest market events. They don't care about your business model. They just buy everything small and growthy and hope the music keeps playing.
Three of these four - Navitas, BlackBerry, and Infleqtion - have priced in success they haven't delivered yet. Navitas needs AI data center revenue that doesn't exist. BlackBerry already got its rerating. Infleqtion is a $3.5 billion valuation on a $40 million revenue plan.
AST SpaceMobile is the only one where the fundamentals - cash position, deployment milestones, beta service rollouts - give the stock something to prove on its own terms. Even there, the Q1 miss demands patience. The stock may need to stabilize before the real thesis materializes.
The Hormuz story will fade. The valuation math won't.