A project-associated multisig wallet has deposited 328 million ONDO tokens, worth approximately $98 million, primarily to Coinbase over the past two months representing about 23% of circulating supply. This massive transfer has been interpreted by the market as preparation for selling, creating direct supply shock concerns and contributing to price weakness from early March highs near $0.45. The lack of official explanation from the project has fueled speculation, keeping selling pressure elevated.
Yet institutional flows tell a different story. ONDO attracted $4.1 million in weekly inflows through May 18, defying a broader crypto market that saw $1.07 billion in total outflows during a week of significant risk-off sentiment. This selective capital rotation into ONDO signals confident investors are treating the dip as a buying opportunity, particularly given Ondo's expanding RWA narrative with over 200 tokenized stocks now live on Solana.
The price currently trades at $0.3958, sitting comfortably above the 50-day SMA at $0.2937 a gap of roughly 35%. This technical positioning matters-bulls must defend this level to maintain the bullish structure, while the $0.50 reference in the headline remains a distant target requiring sustained inflow momentum to reach. The tension between massive supply overhang and steady accumulation creates a delicate balance heading into the weekend.
Technical Setup: $0.50 Resistance and Key Moving Averages
The price currently sits at $0.3958, positioned above the critical 200-day SMA at $0.3644 a gap of roughly 10%. This places bulls in a technically favorable position-the 50-day SMA at $0.2937 provides a clear support floor, while the $0.50 level represents the next major resistance zone that must be cleared for sustained upside.
Price action since March has formed a descending channel, with highs progressively lower from the early March peaks near $0.45. Breaking above the 200-day SMA was a necessary first step, and the current price action suggests bulls are holding that gain. The 14-day RSI at 52.05 sits in neutral territory neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for momentum to build in either direction.
What matters now is whether the monthly higher lows progression remains intact. Each dip has found buyers at progressively higher levels, and the $0.3644 200-day SMA has acted as support. To reach the $0.50 target, bulls need to convert that resistance into support and push through the channel's upper trendline.
Catalysts and Scenarios: What Pushes ONDO Past $0.50?
The bull case centers on Ondo's expanding RWA narrative, with over 200 tokenized stocks and ETFs now live on Solana demonstrating product growth. This institutional-grade expansion deepens integration with a leading blockchain and expands the addressable market for compliant tokenized securities. For bulls to push past $0.50, this fundamental momentum must accelerate enough to absorb the 23% circulating supply overhang from project wallet transfers.
The bear case is more immediate: the 5-day prediction targets $0.2982 by May 24 a -24.67% dip, which would test the critical $0.29-$0.30 support band. This level aligns closely with the 50-day SMA at $0.2937-the same support that has defended previous dips. If the project wallet continues dumping and weekly inflows turn negative, the descending channel breaks downward and the $0.50 target moves further out of reach.
The tension resolves on two watch items. First, project wallet activity: any additional large transfers to exchanges will reinforce selling pressure, while a halt would remove the overhang threat. Second, weekly inflow trends: ONDO's $4.1 million weekly inflow defied broader market outflows-if this selective accumulation continues, it provides the buying depth needed to absorb supply and fuel a breakout. The next 3-5 days will show which force dominates.