The earnings are priced in. Now the chart is making its move.
RKLB dropped to $78.58 intraday, a 7.2% plunge from the previous close of $84.65, after surging roughly 7% in after-hours trading Thursday following better-than-expected Q1 results. That's a complete reversal-buyers stepped in hard post-earnings, then sellers took over with force during regular hours. This isn't a shallow pullback. The volume of 22.94 million shares signals heavy participation in the selloff, with $1.85 billion in turnover-this is conviction on the sell side.
Look at the bigger picture: RKLB has run roughly 2,000% over the last two years, building a deep uptrend channel that's been intact since the space rally began. Today's move tests the lower band of that channel at $78-the breakout is either about to hold or break. The low today touched $77.93, just below the $78 level. That's the line in the sand.
From a technical standpoint, the setup is binary. If $78 holds as support, the post-earnings rally was merely a pause before the next leg up. If it breaks, the 2,000% run is in a correction, and the chart shifts from bullish to neutral at best. The volume says this matters. The price action says we're at an inflection point.
The Fundamental Trigger: EBITDA Guidance Miss
The market isn't punishing RKLB for what it achieved-it's punishing it for what it projects.
Q2 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of -$23 million at the midpoint trails the -$14.5 million analysts were penciling in a significant miss. That's the trigger. The market is forward-looking, and this guidance shortfall is what's driving the selloff.
But here's what's interesting: Q1 Adjusted EBITDA of -$11.75 million actually beat expectations handily, coming in well above the -$26.3 million forecast a 55% improvement. The company is burning less cash than anyone thought. The problem isn't the past quarter-the problem is the forward view.
Revenue guidance tells a different story entirely. At $232.5 million at the midpoint, Q2 sales guidance sits 12% above consensus well above analyst expectations. That's not a company with a demand problem. That's not a company with a pricing problem. The top-line trajectory remains robust.
So what's happening? The market is focusing on the cash burn trajectory, not the revenue growth. RKLB is still a money-losing company burning cash, and the EBITDA guidance miss signals to some investors that the path to profitability-tied heavily on Neutron's launch cycle-isn't as clean as they hoped. With Neutron delayed to Q4 2026, the timeline to break-even extends.
From a technical standpoint, this is classic: a fundamental trigger (guidance miss) provides the excuse for sellers to step in, but the real question is whether the price action at $78 holds. The fundamentals aren't broken-the revenue guidance proves that. It's the forward EBITDA view that's under pressure, and that's what the market is pricing right now.
Key Levels & Trade Scenarios
This is the decision point. The chart has delivered its message-now you need your playbook.
Immediate resistance sits at $84.65 previous close. That's the first line sellers must clear to regain control. Below, the critical support zone is $78-the lower band of the two-year uptrend channel. Today's intraday low touched $77.93, just beneath that level. That's your inflection point.
If $78 holds as support, the post-earnings rally was a pause, not a reversal. Look for a bounce entry on a break above $79, targeting the $82-$84 range. Place your stop below $77.50-any lower and the support thesis is compromised.
If $77.93 breaks, the breakout is under serious pressure. Downside opens toward $75, then the $72-$74 zone. That's a 15%+ drop from here, and the trend shifts from bullish to neutral at best.
Here's the key: a close above $82 today would signal the breakout remains intact despite the weakness. That's the bullish confirmation. Until then, we're in a test. The volume says participants are committed either way-this resolves one way or the other, fast.
Catalysts & What to Watch
The technical test at $78 isn't happening in a vacuum. Two things could change the narrative today: the 5 p.m. ET earnings call and any commentary on Neutron's timeline.
Rocket Lab will discuss the quarter on an earnings call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. That's the catalyst window. Management's commentary on Neutron's launch cadence will either validate the current selloff or spark a short-covering rally.
Here's what matters: Neutron's maiden launch is currently slotted for "later this year," but the delayed Q4 2026 timeline is the market's biggest concern Neutron's maiden launch has been delayed to Q4 2026. Any shift in that schedule-whether an acceleration or another postponement-will immediately recalibrate how traders view the $78 support level. If management hints at production constraints or customer delays, the pullback extends. If they reinforce the 2026 cadence, buyers get their confirmation.
The EBITDA guidance miss already flagged cash burn as the core issue. Watch what they say about the path to profitability and whether they provide any forward guidance adjustments. That's the fundamental trigger that could either validate the breakdown or spark a short-covering rally.
From a technical standpoint, the call is the catalyst. The price action at $78 is the verdict. If the call provides clarity and the stock holds $78, the setup flips bullish. If management fumbles or the support breaks, the trend shifts. Watch the reaction around the call time-that's when volume spikes and the day's direction gets locked in.