SpaceX IPO Day Has Arrived: What Investors Should Expect As The Largest IPO In History Begins Trading

After years of anticipation, SpaceX (SPCX) is finally set to begin trading today, marking what is arguably the most anticipated IPO in modern market history. The Elon Musk-led company priced its offering Thursday evening at $135 per share, raising approximately $75 billion and valuing the company at roughly $1.8 trillion. That valuation makes SpaceX not only the largest IPO ever, but also one of the largest publicly traded companies from its very first day on the market.

Investors now shift their attention from the offering itself to a much more important question: where will the stock actually trade?

Early indications suggest demand remains extremely strong. Nasdaq has announced that SpaceX will be released for quotation at 9:50 a.m. ET, although investors should not expect shares to begin trading immediately. Given the enormous size of the offering, heavy institutional demand, and significant retail participation, most market participants expect the first trade to occur sometime after lunch, potentially around 11:30 a.m. ET or later.

The most closely watched number this morning is coming from shadow markets, where indications are pointing toward an opening price near $178 per share. If that level holds, it would imply a first-day gain of roughly 32% from the IPO price and would push SpaceX's valuation well above $2.3 trillion.

Such a move would not be unprecedented. Historically, approximately 75% of IPOs finish their first day above the offering price. What makes SpaceX unique is the combination of its size, its retail following, and its role as the first major money-losing AI company to come public.

That final point is critical.

Investors are not simply buying a rocket company.

They are effectively voting on the future of artificial intelligence, orbital computing, data center infrastructure, and Elon Musk's broader technology ecosystem.

Following its merger with xAI earlier this year, SpaceX now sits directly at the center of the AI investment theme. Bulls see Starlink's growing broadband business, future orbital AI data centers, reusable launch technology, and Musk's ability to execute massive engineering projects. Bears see a company valued at nearly $2 trillion despite losing billions of dollars annually and relying heavily on businesses that have yet to fully materialize.

The range of analyst valuations highlights just how controversial the story remains.

Morningstar recently estimated fair value near $63 per share. Barron's suggested roughly $90. New Street Research initiated coverage with a $165 valuation, while Oppenheimer launched with a $190 target. Wolfe Research entered coverage Friday morning with an Outperform rating and a $175 price target.

That spread represents one of the widest valuation ranges ever seen for a newly public company.

Wolfe's bullish thesis centers on several potential catalysts, including continued growth at Starlink, accelerating AI revenue, broader adoption following the Cursor acquisition, and successful execution of the Starship program. The firm argues that valuation will likely remain secondary to investor belief in the long-term narrative.

Demand for shares certainly appears robust.

Reports indicate the IPO was oversubscribed by three to four times, while several large institutional investors reportedly sought multi-billion-dollar allocations. BlackRock alone reportedly submitted an order for approximately $5 billion worth of stock. At the same time, SpaceX reduced retail allocations into the low-20% range compared with earlier expectations closer to 30%, another sign of strong institutional interest.

That demand dynamic could be important today.

One reason many traders expect a strong opening is that relatively few shares were actually sold compared with the overall size of the company. If long-term institutional holders decide not to immediately flip shares, supply could remain constrained while public market demand surges.

Retail participation also adds another layer of intrigue.

Unlike many institutional IPOs, SpaceX has captured mainstream attention well beyond traditional investors. Search activity for "SpaceX IPO" has recently exceeded interest in several major geopolitical events, underscoring just how closely the public is following today's debut. The stock has become something of a cultural event rather than simply a financial transaction.

The impact is already being felt throughout related sectors.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) is surging after being selected for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. Shares have already gained more than 350% over the last year as investors sought alternative ways to gain exposure to the space economy ahead of SpaceX's debut. Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group (NBIS), and Teradyne (TER) will also join the Nasdaq 100 during the upcoming rebalance, benefiting from continued enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure and next-generation technology themes.

For investors considering a purchase today, expectations should remain realistic.

The opening trade itself will tell us very little about the long-term success of the company. Early price action will primarily reflect supply and demand dynamics rather than fundamentals. It may take weeks or months before investors begin focusing on earnings power, execution, margins, and valuation.

Instead, today's trading is likely to serve as a referendum on investor appetite for AI-related growth stories.

A strong debut could reinforce enthusiasm surrounding upcoming offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic. A disappointing debut could trigger broader questions about AI valuations and the hundreds of billions of dollars currently being invested across the ecosystem.

That is why today's IPO matters far beyond SpaceX itself.

The company sits at the intersection of several of the market's most important themes: artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, semiconductors, energy demand, telecommunications, and space exploration. Combined, those industries account for tens of trillions of dollars in market capitalization.

By the closing bell, investors may know where SpaceX opened.

The much harder question—what SpaceX is actually worth—will likely remain one of Wall Street's biggest debates for years to come.