The SpaceX IPO is shaping up to be one of the biggest investing events in market history.
Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company is expected to price its offering at $135 per share, raising roughly $75 billion and giving the company an eye-popping valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. If successful, it would rank as the largest IPO ever completed and instantly become one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world.
The excitement is understandable. SpaceX has built dominant positions in commercial launch services, satellite internet through Starlink, and increasingly artificial intelligence through its xAI acquisition. It is also one of the few private companies with a truly global brand and a founder capable of generating unprecedented retail investor interest.
However, enthusiasm should not be confused with value.
Investors considering SpaceX need to understand that while there are numerous ways to gain exposure to the company, not all of those routes are equal. In many cases, investors may be paying substantial premiums or receiving exposure that is only loosely tied to SpaceX itself. More importantly, the proposed valuation already assumes a tremendous amount of future success.
The first and most obvious option is participating directly in the IPO.
SpaceX has reportedly reserved up to 30% of the offering for retail investors, roughly three times the typical retail allocation seen in most IPOs. Brokerages including Fidelity, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, E*Trade, and others are offering customers the opportunity to request shares at the IPO price. However, demand is expected to vastly exceed supply, meaning many investors will receive only partial allocations or none at all. Even if investors secure shares, history suggests highly anticipated IPOs often experience significant volatility during their first few weeks of trading.
For many investors, waiting may actually be the better option.
Several financial advisors quoted in recent reports have suggested allowing the initial excitement to fade before establishing positions. The concern is simple: SpaceX is not a young startup entering public markets. The company is already 24 years old and much of its explosive value creation has already occurred in private markets. Unlike Amazon or Apple, which went public at very early stages of development, SpaceX arrives with a valuation approaching $2 trillion.
That valuation is where the debate becomes particularly intense.
At the proposed pricing, SpaceX would trade at more than 100 times revenue, a level that exceeds many of the largest technology success stories in history. Morningstar has suggested fair value estimates closer to $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion, while several advisors have described the proposed valuation as aggressive given the company's current financial profile. The company reportedly lost nearly $5 billion last year, making traditional valuation metrics difficult to justify.
For investors who miss the IPO, there are several indirect ways to gain exposure.
One of the most popular approaches has been investing through publicly traded funds that already hold SpaceX shares. The Cambria ERShares Private Investments ETF (XOVR) has become one of the most widely discussed vehicles because SpaceX reportedly accounts for more than 40% of its portfolio. The Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) closed-end fund also holds meaningful SpaceX exposure, while several venture-focused funds maintain positions as well.
The problem is that many of these vehicles have already experienced substantial inflows ahead of the IPO.
Investors need to remember they are not buying SpaceX directly. They are buying a fund that owns SpaceX along with numerous other holdings. Fund premiums, discounts to net asset value, management fees, and portfolio construction decisions can all influence returns independent of what SpaceX actually does.
Several advisors have argued that the window for many of these proxy vehicles may have already closed as investors rushed to gain exposure ahead of the IPO.
Accredited investors have another route through secondary marketplaces such as Forge Global, Hiive, EquityZen, and Nasdaq Private Market.
These platforms allow investors to purchase shares directly from existing employees and early investors. However, this route comes with significant drawbacks. Minimum investments often range from $50,000 to $100,000, liquidity is limited, fees can be substantial, and prices can vary dramatically depending on market conditions. In some cases, secondary market pricing has implied valuations well above those being discussed for the IPO itself.
Perhaps the most speculative route involves the growing number of tokenized and synthetic SpaceX products appearing across crypto exchanges.
Platforms including Kraken and Bybit are offering tokenized versions of SpaceX exposure, while others provide derivative products tied to SpaceX's valuation. Investors should proceed very carefully here. In many cases these products provide economic exposure without ownership rights, voting rights, or dividends. Investors may be buying a derivative linked to SpaceX rather than SpaceX itself.
Ironically, some of the safest opportunities may lie outside SpaceX entirely.
Several advisors have suggested investors consider companies benefiting from the broader commercialization of space rather than chasing the headline IPO. Rocket Lab USA (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Redwire Corporation (RDW), aerospace suppliers, satellite manufacturers, semiconductor companies, telecommunications providers, and defense contractors could all benefit from increased investment in space infrastructure. These companies often trade at significantly lower valuations while still offering exposure to many of the same long-term themes driving interest in SpaceX.
Investors should also understand one important structural issue.
SpaceX is expected to utilize a dual-class share structure that gives Elon Musk and insiders significantly greater voting control than public shareholders. Retail investors may own economic interests in the company, but control over major corporate decisions will remain firmly in the hands of insiders. Governance concerns have been highlighted by several analysts as one of the key risks associated with the offering.
The bottom line is that SpaceX is a remarkable company, but remarkable companies do not always translate into remarkable investments.
There is little doubt that SpaceX has transformed multiple industries and created one of the most valuable private businesses in the world. The challenge for investors is determining how much of that success is already reflected in a valuation approaching $1.75 trillion.
For retail investors eager to participate, the best approach may be the least exciting one: avoid chasing the opening print, understand exactly what type of exposure you are purchasing, and remember that buying a great company at the wrong price can still produce disappointing returns.
Sometimes the most profitable trade is simply waiting for the hype to cool.

