Standard Chartered's $100K call still stands after a sharp reset
Standard Chartered still expects bitcoin to finish 2026 at $100,000 by end-2026, even after warning that price could fall to around $50,000 in the coming months. The bank is not saying the market is safe today. It is saying the target was reduced, not abandoned, and that a painful reset may be part of the path to recovery.
Why the contradiction matters
The bank's argument is really about market flows. After a 46% drop from its October 6 all-time high, many ETF holders are sitting on losses, which can change behavior. Standard Chartered's point is that this slump matters because it has increased supply and weakened sentiment at the same time.
In June, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs also saw a record $3.4 billion in single-week outflows, while bitcoin fell more than 10% during that period. If flows stabilize, this stretch could look like a buying window in hindsight. If not, the market may still be dealing with fresh supply.
Why Standard Chartered still expects a year-end rebound
Why the bank thinks the worst may be close
In its June 4 note, Standard Chartered said bitcoin's bottom is "nearly in place." Its main reasoning was that recent selling has already flushed out much of the fragile leverage, so another mechanical wipeout may have less fuel. That does not remove downside risk, but it helps explain how the bank can stay constructive even after a brutal selloff.
The sell-into-weakness problem
Bears have a clear argument here. Earlier this year, Kendrick said ETF holders sitting on roughly average losses of 25% were "more likely to sell, rather than buy the dip." That view still matters.
The bank's bullish case is more specific: if forced selling fades, marginal supply can shrink quickly and latent demand can start to matter again. Standard Chartered says investors may later look back on this period as "the buying zone we all wanted."
What could restart demand
For the $100K case to work, new buyers need to absorb supply. Standard Chartered has pointed to two potential supports: - Strategy's aggressive bitcoin buying - Future spot ETF inflows
If those forces strengthen, the slump starts to look more like a reset than a broken trend.
What has to happen for the $100K forecast to hold
Standard Chartered's $100,000 year-end bitcoin prediction depends on the market stopping its cycle of forced selling. A key stress test came on June 3, when price fell to $65,710 as 10 to 11 days of ETF outflows reached roughly $2.8 billion to $3.5 billion and forced liquidations hit about $1.8 billion. That kind of pressure can overwhelm a longer-term demand story in the short run.
Signals that would support the bank
- Selling pressure weakens. If price drops but liquidations and redemptions no longer keep expanding, it would suggest some forced supply has already been cleared.
- Price stabilizes and reclaims support. Bulls need bitcoin to regain control above the low-$70,000s and hold it. Until then, the market is still showing that June weakness remains relevant.
Signals that would weaken the call
- Rallies keep failing under fresh selling. If weak bounces are consistently met with more outflows and liquidations, the market has not finished clearing risk.
- ETF bleeding resumes. A new wave of sustained redemptions would challenge the idea that the clean-up is nearly done.
The framework is straightforward: the thesis improves if flows stabilize and forced selling fades. It weakens if outflows and liquidations keep feeding each other.