$1.13 loss shifts the fight to $1.10
XRP is no longer fighting for $1.20. After a liquidation-style selloff pushed it below $1.13, the market found temporary support only after briefly slipping under $1.10 and bouncing near $1.09. The immediate question is whether that wick becomes a base or the start of another leg lower.
Price action has stayed weak
XRP fell from $1.17 to $1.11 in one session and then extended a sharp 2026 pullback toward $1.1357 on June 10, down 6.25% over seven days. The broader pattern remains bearish, which is why traders are treating the $1.09 buy zone as a temporary floor rather than a confirmed reversal.
June history adds pressure
XRP is entering a month that has delivered losses between 17% and 39% in every prior midterm election year. Prior June drops included 17% in 2014, 39% in 2018, and 32% in 2022. That history does not guarantee another decline, but it does raise the odds of another tough stretch if $1.10 fails.
ETF flows and derivatives show conflicting signals
Once XRP loses $1.12 to $1.13, the debate shifts from chart levels to who adds support first: passive ETF sponsors or active trend traders.
The bullish case starts with ETF accumulation
XRP ETFs still show cumulative inflows near $1.5 billion. The first outflow of the month did occur as net assets slipped to $1.03 billion from a peak above $1.13 billion, but one bad day does not erase the broader accumulation trend. It weakens the story; it does not prove that long-term buyers have abandoned XRP.
Participation has also stayed active. Even with price under pressure, futures volume rose 39% to $4.02 billion and open interest rose 2.9% to $2.41 billion. When both metrics rise together during a support test, it usually suggests traders are adding exposure rather than flattening the book.
Bears still control the trend
The bearish case is simpler: price is still weak. The broader setup remains bearish until former support levels are convincingly reclaimed. Supportive ETF history may cushion the downside, but it does not automatically reverse a pressing downtrend.
XRP support and resistance map from $1.09 to $1.37
What would confirm a rebound
A real bottom is not declared by a single wick. The first validation comes when XRP reclaims $1.12 to $1.13 and holds it on stronger rebound volume.
If bulls win that zone, the next checkpoint is $1.30 to $1.37 resistance. In this tape, $1.30 is the first major level to watch on a recovery.
The next stronger bullish marker is the roughly 62% retracement from the July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. If price reaches that area, the move starts to look less like a support test and more like a broader reset.
What would invalidate the bounce
The first warning sign is straightforward: February Lows At $1.10 Are The Last Line Of Defence. If that floor breaks again, the base buyers just defended is no longer holding.
If selling pressure reaches the $1.00 area, the market is likely repricing lower rather than simply bouncing. A push toward $0.90 would extend the bearish structure well beyond a routine support test.