U.S. and Iranian officials are moving closer to a potential agreement to end the conflict, with the next 48 hours seen as critical to determining whether a deal can be finalized, according to multiple sources cited by Axios.
According to U.S. officials and sources familiar with the negotiations, the White House is working toward a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would formally end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear talks. While no agreement has been finalized, officials say this is the closest the two sides have come to a deal since the conflict began.
The proposed MOU would initiate a 30-day negotiation period to hammer out a broader agreement covering Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, both sides would begin easing restrictions—Tehran would scale back limits on shipping through the strait, while the U.S. would gradually roll back its naval blockade.
A central pillar of the deal is a moratorium on Iran's uranium enrichment program. The duration remains under negotiation, with sources suggesting a range of at least 12 years, potentially extending to 15. Iran had proposed a five-year pause, while the U.S. initially pushed for a 20-year suspension.
Additional provisions under discussion include Iran committing not to pursue nuclear weapons or related weaponization activities, potentially halting operations at underground nuclear facilities, and accepting enhanced international inspections, including snap checks by U.N. inspectors. The U.S., in turn, would agree to gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.
One of the more contentious and closely watched elements involves Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Sources say discussions include the possibility of removing the material from the country—a key U.S. objective that Tehran has previously resisted.
However, many elements of the MOU would be contingent on reaching a final agreement, leaving open the possibility of renewed conflict or a prolonged interim period in which active hostilities cease but core disputes remain unresolved. U.S. officials also caution that divisions within Iran's leadership could complicate consensus on any deal.
Still, recent developments suggest momentum. Donald Trump said late Tuesday he would pause "Project Freedom," a U.S. initiative to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing "great progress" toward a "complete and final agreement" with Iran. Officials said the decision was aimed at avoiding a breakdown in the fragile ceasefire and supporting ongoing negotiations.
Talks are being led by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, both directly and through intermediaries. Potential venues for the next phase of negotiations include Islamabad and Geneva.
Iran has also signaled it is reviewing the latest U.S. proposal. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson told CNBC that Tehran is evaluating the terms.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that while a final agreement may take time, early concessions will be key. "This is highly complex and technical," Rubio said. "But we need a diplomatic solution that clearly defines what both sides are willing to negotiate and concede."
Despite renewed optimism, skepticism remains. Previous rounds of talks have raised hopes without producing a deal, and officials acknowledge that significant hurdles still stand in the way.
For now, markets are reacting to the prospect of de-escalation. Whether that optimism holds will likely depend on developments over the next 48 hours.